September Rightmove House Price Index
As the autumn season unfolds, the UK housing market is showing fresh signs of life and the latest data from the Rightmove House Price Index provides a clear picture of where things may be heading next.
As the autumn season unfolds, the UK housing market is showing fresh signs of life and the latest data from the Rightmove House Price Index provides a clear picture of where things may be heading next.
In this update, we’ll unpack the key figures, what they mean for buyers and sellers, and why everyone in the market should be watching the forthcoming Autumn Statement closely.
🍂 Early Autumn Momentum
According to the Rightmove House Price Index, average new seller asking prices rose by 0.4% month‑on‑month in September, bringing the national figure to approximately £370,257.
However, on a year‑on‑year basis, prices are now 0.1% lower, marking the first annual decline since early 2024.
Here’s what’s happening beneath the headline numbers:
- Sales agreed are outpacing last year by 4%, signalling that demand remains active despite market caution.
- In the South of England, new stock is rising sharply, up 9% year‑on‑year, increasing choice for buyers (and competition among sellers).
- In contrast, other regions are seeing only about 2% stock growth, which is supporting price stability outside the South.
- Mortgage affordability is gradually improving: average two‑year fixed rates have pulled back to around 4.52% according to Rightmove’s Mortgage Tracker.
- In London, over 59% of agreed sales so far this year are for homes priced above £500,000 - a segment most exposed if property tax reforms arrive in the Autumn Statement.
This suggests a market in transition, not collapse.
🔍 What This Means for Sellers & Buyers
For Sellers
- The modest month‑on‑month rise is encouraging, but the annual dip warns: don’t rely on yesterday’s prices. Start competitively rather than chasing peaks.
- In high‑supply areas (especially southern markets), your listing must stand out: professional photography, strong storytelling about lifestyle, and compelling staging make a difference.
- If your property is in the £500k+ bracket, buyer scrutiny will be higher. Be prepared to justify your pricing and anticipate concerns about future tax burdens.
- As demand remains active, fast execution is key, the window when buyers are most engaged is narrow in this climate.
For Buyers
- The increase in agreed sales shows serious buyers are still active - good homes will still move quickly.
- Easing mortgage rates mean more purchasing opportunities, especially in mid‑price brackets.
- In premium markets, proceed with caution: the more regulated your segment becomes, the more risk of policy surprises.
- Buyers with financing, surveys, and agents lined up early will always win in a more discerning market.
👀 Eye on the Autumn Statement
Everything in housing is ultimately policy sensitive and the Autumn Statement, expected later this year, may hold some of the biggest implications for homeowners.
There’s growing speculation that this Statement could include:
- Alterations to stamp duty or replacement taxes on property
- New or expanded annual property taxes, especially targeting high‑value homes
- Changes to capital gains tax rules for property owners
Because over 59% of London’s agreed sales are already above £500,000, any shift in policy could disproportionately affect premium markets. Many buyers and sellers may pause, renegotiate, or demand more certainty until clarity emerges.
At The Avenue, we’re watching the Autumn Statement closely and advising clients to be ready for short-term caution until details are clear.
✅ What You Should Do Now
- Be pragmatic with pricing: don’t overreach (buyers will adjust faster than you expect).
- Use certainty‑enhancing tools such as reservation agreements to reduce deal fall-throughs.
- Model downside scenarios, especially for high‑value homes, in case tax or policy changes land.
- Stay updated on announcements and act quickly, early movers often capture the best opportunities.
- Partner with agents who monitor local nuance (South vs. rest of UK, price bands, buyer segments).
FAQs
❓ What is the Rightmove House Price Index?
The Rightmove House Price Index tracks new seller asking prices and market activity each month. It’s the UK’s most up-to-date snapshot of buyer demand and pricing trends.
❓ Why are high-value homes more at risk right now?
Because speculation around new property taxes and stamp duty changes (likely addressed in the Autumn Statement) is creating uncertainty in this segment.
❓ Should I move before or after the Autumn Statement?
If you’re in the £500,000+ bracket, weigh up the risks of delay versus acting now. Smart pricing and proactive marketing can still secure strong results before any changes are confirmed.